Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group recently revised their outlook on US economic growth, forecasting stronger growth in the first quarter due to an uptick in consumer spending. Unfortunately, the organization believes that a recession may begin as early as the second half of the year.
Doug Duncan, senior VP and chief economist at Fannie Mae said, “The economic slowdown has resumed — whether the end result is a modest recession or simply a soft landing remains unanswered.” According to Duncan, indicators of the downturn include a weakening employment market, slowing retail sales, and declining manufacturing activity.
However, there’s some hope in the form of hopeful homeowners. When mortgage rates dip, there’s an increase in homeowner responses, giving the ESR Group added confidence in their prediction of a ‘modest’ recession.
Whatever the future may hold for the economy, it remains uncertain. But as of now, Fannie Mae is expecting a mild recession in the latter half of the year.
