The Conference Board has issued a Job Loss Risk Index, which measures the likeliness of layoffs in the US economy across various industries. Companies in the Information Services, Transportation and Warehousing, and Construction industries are most likely to suffer layoffs, while those in Government, Private Education Services, Healthcare and Accommodation and Food Services are least at risk. This dedicated index, created by the Senior Economist at The Conference Board, Frank Steemers, helps business leaders determine their exposure to a potential recession.
Data included in the index considers factors such as labor shortages exposure, sensitivity to monetary policy, job functions, education levels required, the state of pandemic recovery, longer-term trends in labor demand and the age composition and experience levels of a workforce. Information services tops the list with the highest risk of job losses, as the sector saw a rapid growth in the pandemic with the increased utilisation of new technologies.
The Conference Board pre-empts that while a short and shallow contraction is their most likely scenario, recruitment and retention difficulties will remain. Despite an expected decrease in labour demand, the unemployment rate is predicted to remain low which could cause labour shortage to quickly reappear as the economy starts to recover.