Consumers’ expectations around inflation saw an uptick and those who believe US unemployment will be higher a year from now also saw a rise, according to the March 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data. The report found that median inflation expectations were up by 0.5 of a percentage point at the one-year-ahead horizon to 4.7%. This marks the first increase in the series since October 2022. At the same time, 40.7% of those surveyed expressed expectations for higher unemployment in the US in the next 12 months – a 1.3 percentage point increase from the last survey. This increase in sentiment was more broadly felt among those with college education, those aged 40-60 and those with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.

Consumers’ median expected growth in household income saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. On the other hand, other economic sentiments such as the perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months, leaving one’s job voluntarily and the probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) all decreased.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations