Despite the overall positive showing, The Conference Board expects job growth to slow over the next several months. The organization is forecasting a mild recession to start in 2023, which could lead to more substantial weakening in job growth or monthly job losses.
The resilient labor market saw a mild uptick in April, according to The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index. While the index remains elevated, at its current reading of 116.18, it’s below its peak reached in March 2022. This signals that job gains will likely continue, albeit at a slower pace than before, over the next few months. Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted that the labor market is still tight, with job openings and quits both in decline, and compensation growth softening. With the Federal Reserve aiming to slow inflation, this may mean yet another interest rate rise by 25 basis points. Though it looks positive for now, The Conference Board continues to predict that a mild recession starting in 2023 could lead to serious job losses.