A new survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has revealed that an overwhelming majority of economic forecasters believe that the US economy is likely headed for a recession this year. 53% of those surveyed envision a recession at some point in 2023, with 24% of economists expecting it to start in the third quarter this year. Further, inflation remains a prominent concern, with more than seven in ten panelists believing that growth in the consumer price index will remain above 4% through the end of 2023.

Mervin Jebaraj, NABE Policy Survey Chair from the University of Arkansas, commented on the survey results, “Panelists generally agree on the outlook for inflation and the consequences of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. More than two-thirds are not confident that the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% goal within the next two years without inducing a recession.”

The survey reveals a gloomy outlook on the US economy’s performance this year, despite the fact that only 5% of survey respondents believe the US is currently in a recession. NABE President Julia Coronado added, “More than half of NABE policy survey panelists expect a recession at some point