Amidst macroeconomic worries and peak levels, the US staffing industry is projected to decrease 10% this year, leading to a market size of $201.7 billion. (Excluding the travel nurse segment, the decrease is 4.1%.) The decline follows robust growth of 34% in 2021 and 20% in 2022. We forecast an 8% decrease in commercial staffing, a 3% decrease in IT staffing, and a 19% decrease in healthcare staffing this year. Meanwhile, the travel nurse segment increased sixfold from 2019 to 2022, but is expected to shrink 30% this year. Only three segments are projected to increase this year: engineering (+5%), locum tenens (+12%), and education (+20%).

Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate a mild 3% growth in the US staffing industry (3.8% excluding the travel nurse segment) in line with expectations for slight GDP growth and high interest rates creating a headwind. We forecast single digit growth across most segments of the staffing industry. We forecast 3% growth in commercial staffing, 5% expansion in IT staffing, and a 3% decline in healthcare staffing.

Secular growth drivers such as greater acceptance of contingent work arrangements, a shift to remote work that has enlarged the